Oregon and the nation are starting to see positive economic signs although progress is gradual and could be derailed by such things as a surge in oil prices.

That was the hopeful but cautious picture Portland economist John Mitchell painted Monday during his keynote address at the Business Outlook Conference at Lucky 7 Casino’s Tolowa Event Center.

“The economy is growing, but growing slowly,” said Mitchell, the former chief economist for U.S. Bancorp and past chairman of the Oregon Council of Economic Advisors.

He noted that many states are experiencing job growth, but the numbers are still  about 6 million below the 2008 level. California ranked seventh and Oregon was 26th nationally in job creation during 2011, according to an Arizona State University study.

“We have broad-based employment gains,” Mitchell said. “It’s up significantly, but we still have a long way to go.”

The same thing goes for automobile sales, he said. Sales have rebounded “sharply” in the U.S., Mitchell reported, but they still lag behind the pace of several years ago.

Meanwhile, the continued glut of foreclosure properties has kept home prices low, even for new construction, Mitchell said. Still, he said house sales and building permits have started to increase – a factor that should benefit the economy more significantly next year.

“There are signs of a housing rebound, but obviously it’s coming off a very low base,” Mitchell said.

Seventeen percent of Oregonians with mortgages owed more money on their home than the house was worth as of the third quarter of 2011. That compares with 29 percent for California and 22 percent nationwide.

The demand for rental housing is “up greatly,”  Mitchell added.

He said economic turmoil in Europe is responsible for long-term interest rates staying low in the U.S. That’s because Europeans sought the stability of U.S. bonds in the wake of the Euro’s uncertainty and that demand kept interest rates from increasing, he said.

Mitchell predicted a slight increase in U.S. interest rates in the second half of 2012.

As for bright spots in the economy, he pointed toward travel tourism, which “is looking better.”

However, Mitchell said that trend could be stopped if there’s a major increase in gas prices.