Sheriff’s deputies might not respond to burglaries, even those in progress.

Building permits and inspections could be turned over to the state, with the nearest office in Coquille.

The county jail, currently described by Sheriff John Bishop as “an absolute disaster,” could fall even further into noncompliance of state regulations.

Those are among the predictions a 24-member Citizens’ Committee heard Wednesday in Gold Beach as the panel met for the first time to seek ways to avoid a county government financial collapse.

 The group will begin airing recommendations during its next meeting Dec. 15. Final options are scheduled to be given to the Curry County Board of Commissioners on Feb. 1, 2012.

The county budget shortfall will be at least $2 million next year and will increase significantly in the following two years when federal funding and county reserves are gone, according to John Spicer of the county’s budget committee.

Eric Schmidt of the Association of Oregon Counties painted a bleak picture for committee members.

“There aren’t any easy answers,” he said. “There are no silver bullets.”

Schmidt warned against looking to state government for help.

“The state is not in any position to cover lost revenue to the counties,” he said. You’re the first county on the precipice. Others will follow and the state just can’t backfill that.”

A report by the Governor’s Task Force in 2009 identified several “crisis” counties. Schmidt said many of them have low tax rates compared with the state average.

Curry County has the second-lowest rate of any Oregon County – 60 cents per $1,000 of assessed property value. That compares with $1.41 for Hood River County and $12.77 for Jefferson County, both of which have about the same population as Curry County.

Schmidt urged Curry taxpayers to help themselves by raising the tax rate. Spicer added, “Our taxes here are extremely low.”

However, committee member Gary Milliman, the Brookings city manager, said it’s too early to talk about raising taxes. First, county officials and residents need to know whether federal funding from the Secure Rural Schools and Self-Determination Act will be discontinued.

That money, given to counties in lieu of revenue from timber harvesting, has declined over the years and is set to expire after a final payment this month. Efforts to continue the payments have surfaced in Congress, but there’s no assurance they will pass.

Milliman said citizens aren’t likely to vote for a tax increase “as long as the prospect of a federal bailout is imminent.”

That sentiment was voiced by Maggi Runyan of Brookings during a public comment period.

“Don’t try to tell me the county can’t cut expenses,” she said. “What good would a tax increase do if the county still doesn’t know how to budget?

“Everyone (in county government) should have an across the board percentage reduction in salaries before you try to raise taxes.”

Committee members also got their chance to comment. Dominic Petrucelli took tax-increase opponents to task.

“Nothing comes for free,” he said. “If you want safety, you have to pay for it. If you want roads, you have to pay for them.”

During an interview, Petrucelli said reducing the level of police or fire protection could cause home owners’ insurance rates to go up. That increase could cost people more than a tax boost, he said.

While some committee members said the day’s procession of department heads, each detailing the effects of declining revenue, was unnecessary. “We all know what the problem is,” one of them said.

However, committee member Bruce Raleigh said the meeting was educational.

“I’m learning new things,” he said. “I was one of the general public going along blissfully until (the financial crisis) came to the surface in the last few months.

“We shouldn’t have gotten to this point. We should have done something a couple of years ago.”

Committee member Susan Lunsford said there are only two choices: find new revenue sources or cut programs.

Spicer of the county budget committee said it’s not a matter of cutting personnel or programs. It’s a matter of cutting entire departments because future staff reductions won’t leave enough employees to provide services.

Budgeted revenue for 2011-12 is $7,882,700, he said. That falls to $4,763,373 the following year and $2,055,078 in 2013-14.

He called the estimated $2 million shortfall for 2012-13 “an optimistic figure” because it doesn’t include possible emergency costs or expenses for unemployment insurance for workers who lose their jobs.

Spicer said budgets for the sheriff’s office and district attorney’s office are “bare bones.”

Sheriff John Bishop was asked during his presentation what level of funding would allow efficient operation. He said he now has five deputies but needs 12 to have two of them on duty 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

“That would double my civil/criminal budget,” he said.

There are two parole and probation officers although four are needed, Bishop added. The result is a decrease in treatment programs, he said.

Ken Dukek, head of the Juvenile Department, said that office has 15 employees in 2005. Now there are three.

As a results, probation periods often end early, he said. Dukek expressed concern for how the community will be protected from juveniles who commit serious crimes such as burglary and sex offenses if further cuts are made.

County roadmaster Dan Crumley said the Road Department will have to dip into its reserve account next year for $865,000 just to maintain the county’s 230 miles of roads. He said rebuilding a road is “far more expensive” than maintaining it properly.

Likewise, infrastructure and maintenance specialist Eric Hanson said county buildings are in bad shape with every structure suffering deferred maintenance.

The jail is out of compliance with the state fire marshal’s requirements because it lacks a sprinkler system, he said, and the courthouse has leaking roofs and inadequate ventilation.

Hanson said a study indicated it would be cheaper to tear down the aging courthouse and build a new one than to remedy all the problems with the existing building.